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Pebble Beach 2019 Auction Recap

  Pebble Beach 2019 Auction Recap Estimate Ranges Too High and Too Wide A Lot of Fumbling at Pebble   Imagine the scene. A special video plays an intro for Type 64 the highly anticipated one and only pre-Porsche Porsche coming to the stage – certainly destined for aggressive high bidding action from around the globe. The auctioneer opens the bidding at $30m – what? The crowd oohs and aahs and the auctioneer stutters a defense for his opening gambit that this is “… a very special car.” A bidder waives their hand and the massive display board pops $30m on the screen. Before the stunned crowd can absorb their disbelief in this number being accepted the auctioneer cries out a $40m bid – the crowd cannot believe what they are witnessing – surely an all-time record will be made tonight. And before one…

PORS9 Market Update July 2019

  CBA July 2019 Porsche Market Update Large Price Drops in Top Models Tells a Tale?   It seems that as summer rolls forward reality is setting in for those selling the most expensive models. They aren’t moving and it’s not going to get any easier once fall rolls in. We have seen average asking prices for 918 Spyder and Carrera GT in particular fall considerably. These are interesting cases along with the 997 GT2 RS (and others such as the 911R), which have also seen measurable weakness. It is generally assumed that 918 owners ‘don’t need the money’, maybe so. But it seems that they do ‘want the money’ … before the profits slip away. Buyers certainly seem to doubt the 918’s ability to hold current values. And in truth, as compared to the historical Porsche ownership experience of limted models, they have…

Pebble Beach 2019 Auction Preview

  CBA Previews Pebble Beach 2019 Auctions More Realistic Auction Estimates?   We have been critical over the past 18 months or so that auction price estimates have been too high. That auction houses, competing to get the best cars, had been pitching sellers on unrealistic estimate ranges combined with high reserves that protected sellers from the houses not realizing their expectations. This strategy however is not sustainable for auction house profits and the market data proves that out as in fact a large percentage of the highest value and most profitable cars were no sales over this time period. Auction houses were left looking like they had lost their juice and the rationale for their payday. The response from auction houses was then to demand no reserve on all but the best cars whereby they could be agnostic as to unrealistic estimate ranges…

PORS9 Market Update June 2019

  CBA June 2019 Porsche Market Update Inventory Drop Mostly Due to 991.1 GT3RS   As we move into summer the volume of cars being taken off the market appears to be increasing – an overall drop of 5% in market inventory. The 180+ days inventory fell by 14% indicating that sellers are figuring out that at some point you have to take the car off the market or capitulate on price and move it. Most likely we are witnessing the former combined with a drop in new cars coming to market (off by 5%) as summer comes in to full swing. The best example of the what the market is doing can be seen in the 991.1 GT3RS. The 180+ days on market inventory fell by 30% as cars listed this long were figured to be stale – or bargains. And even though…

PORS9 Market Update May 2019

  CBA May 2019 Porsche Market Update More Inventory Moving to 180+ Days   Spring has been considered selling season for houses, cars and boats … for Porsche’s spring has not sprung in 2019. While some models are selling OK … many are sitting, moving into long term inventory – not by choice. As the summary table below shows the vehicles in the PORS9 database which are still on the market are aging. And because we track by VIN, cars which move around between dealers to stay fresh cannot hide their on the market age. We thought the price expectations gap appeared to be narrowing leading to more cars selling and leaving the market … but it seems more so what we are seeing is sellers either removing their cars from the market or simply holding off selling altogether. New cars on the market…

PORS9 Market Update April 2019

  CBA April 2019 Market Update From on fire … to burnt? The Expectation Gap is Narrowing   Members, Friends and Colleagues – we have been collecting market data on PORS9 Registry models (by VIN) for the past 24 month which we use for everything from general vehicle valuation to pricing forecasts used in our Auction previews. We decided to start a monthly blog post that shares some of this data, hopefully in a way that proves useful in interpreting the current market and market direction. As we go along we will find new ways to augment and present the data … this is the start. The market has softened considerably over the past 12 months and as a result the gap widened between seller’s expectations and buyer’s interest. We know that many sellers locked in at prices between 2015-2017 which prices are now…

Amelia 2019 Auction Recap

    CBA Recaps Amelia 2019 Auctions Softer Than Scottdale? ‘Best Location for Porsches’ Auction?   Good weather, soft clouds … and even softer auction results for Porsches. We know the market is down for all things Porsche. So two main take aways from Amelia may be that an auction house concentrating on Porsches is probably not wise and that low demand can make for some great deals on no reserve Porsches. There are also a few other observations from Amelia 2019 which we bullet point below. But first let’s look at a few issues we raised going into Amelia. In our Amelia Island 2019 Auction Preview we felt that auction house overall performance has been mixed and in particular that Gooding needed a good showing. We were looking for evidence that an auction strategy of reserve with a low estimate range could outperform…

Amelia 2019 Auction Preview

    CBA Previews Amelia 2019 Auctions Is Amelia the Place to Sell Porsches? New Offering Strategies Implemented?   In 2018 it seemed it was being established that Amelia Island had taken over from Scottsdale as the place to sell Porsches. Unfortunately weather conditions last year spoiled the party as we wrote about here. Last year both Gooding and RM had a nice selection of interesting Porsches – but it seems this year, if Gooding didn’t have a suite of cars from collector Jan Koum on tap, there would be a dearth of interesting Porsches (to us) on offer here. Bonhams isn’t offering anything that fits our preview. So then, a couple of things we will be looking for. Gooding has committed to Amelia (as it is one of only three annual auctions for them) in a big way. Their Porsche sales at Amelia…

Scottsdale 2019 Auction Recap

    CBA Recaps Scottsdale 2019 Auctions Good Attendance Soft Results Scottsdale Still Viable for High End?   Scottsdale may no longer the place to sell your highest end collectibles. And perhaps it hasn’t been for some time. But the real story is not Scottsdale per se, it is what lies in the comparative results between houses and individual lots at Scottsdale. We believe we are starting to see some evidence leading to answers to some of the questions we have had. First, are auction houses negatively impacted by having too many auctions? And second, can auction houses change their pricing strategies in order to improve their results? Whether Scottsdale is still a strong auction for you as a premium house may depend upon how thin you are stretched. Which goes to answering our first question. If your ability to attract premium inventory is…

Scottsdale 2019 Auction Preview

    CBA Previews Scottsdale 2019 Auctions The Inventory Tells the Story Change is Here   2019 is here and the market trends which began in 2017 are beginning to turn to hard crystal. It’s now a buyer’s market not a seller’s market. Auction houses have absolutely been experiencing the effects of the transition. And it is evidenced by the nature of the inventory on offer at Scottsdale 2019. We have been preaching for some time what seemed obvious to us. Auction houses cannot readily sell at the unrealistic estimates they need to offer sellers in order entice their business. This has led to a shortage of the best inventory and more ‘no sales’ of that inventory. The impact on profits has caused them to demand a ‘no reserve’ on an increasing amount of the better quality inventory in order to ensure minimum profits….

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