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Amelia Island 2020 Auction Preview

 

PORS9 Amelia Island 2020 Auction Preview

Black Swan for Prices?

 

Amelia may be hit by a perfect storm this year. And it’s not the weather this time. Stock market crash, asset price deflation, and the causal Covid-19 scare. Will people go? Will people fly? … will people pay attention? Usually our talk is all about car prices but it seems there is more much at work right now.

The global annual Game Developers Conference is here in San Francisco in a few weeks … or it was. Microsoft, Facebook, Sony and Electronic Arts pulled out … and then the entire event was postponed until a date uncertain in summer. More to the point the Geneva International Motor Show was cancelled! There is a tangible dampening effect on all things at the moment. One must expect that there will be some impact on a large gathering of car people … and auction results.

It’s hard to make price predictions in the middle of black swan events, if that’s what this is or is becoming, but here we go …

 
 

Auction Preview RM Sotheby’s

Lot 129 – 1987 959 Komfort – 5,822 M – Silver Grey – Estimate $1m – $1.25m – Reserve.

For some time its been clear that the 959K is a $1m+ car. This seems like a really nice example … that unfortunately was sent to Canepa Design for ‘upgrades’. Yuck. Being no longer original and probably without its original parts … its value is lower than it should be. In fact it has a lot of mods. Making it California BAR legal doesnt mean much since everyone seems to register everything in Montana anymore and the other 49 states certainly don’t care. Should have kept it away from Canepa.

With reserve off a $850k hammer is possible.

 

Lot 140 – 2004 Carrera GT – 766 M – GT Silver Metallic/Dark Grey – Estimate $750k – $800k – No Reserve.

This low mileage Carrera GT may be a possible tell as to whether there is a Black Swan impact on Amelia. As we said in our Scottsdale 2020 preview the Carrera GT remains one Porsche model pulling some real demand. XT Buckets, all the luggage, two owners, good clutch, recent service … needs nothing. A 2004 in GT Silver is less desireable. But seems the right car for someone who does not want to drive it much. No reserve makes it quite interesting.

A $725k hammer would place it around retail market all-in.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 150 – 1992 964 RS 3.6 – 10,887 KM – Grand Prix White/Black – Estimate $300k – $375k – Reserve.

The 964 model series has some very interesting and important low production cars – some we got here, some we didn’t. This model is one built in relatively high numbers that we didn’t get here … which makes it less interesting for many. In general, the 964 3.6 RS is a fun car but not special enough to spark up and coming collectors and not nostalgic enough for aging boomers. There are always plenty to choose from in Europe.

Appears an excellent example … but that is what it will take to get a $255k hammer if the reserve is off.

 

Lot 152 – 2019 991 GT2 RS Weissach – 35 M – Carrara White/Black – Estimate $375k – $425k – Reserve.

Our upcoming February market update will show 91 991 GT2 RS for sale in the most recent 90 day cycle ending February 29. OUCH! Low miles is pretty meaningless. Weissach is mandatory. This car should not be here.

$333k MSRP makes this at best a $333k car all-in. $295k hammer … but more probably no sale.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 155 – 2019 991 GT2 RS Clubsport – 315 KM – White/Black – Estimate $360k – $400k – Reserve.

Arguably the pinnacle 991 era Porsche but also a flop for Porsche. No real race series and illegal on the road. Rumors are new ones can still be bought here and in Europe. New with spare parts kit they are $540k plus tax. Not a cheap track day car for sure. This one says its never been used with 315 KM on the screen?.

Demand is low and the market is narrow for these just a few months removed from leaving the factory. With an estimate designed to pull in buyers … a nice discount to cost may be at hand. A $405K hammer may be all this can achieve.

 
 

Auction Preview Gooding & Co.

Lot 025 – 1996 993 Carrera RS – 23,000 KM – Speed Yellow /Black/Grey – Estimate $350k to $400k – Reserve.

Unlike the 964 there seems to be a demand tail on the 993 model for younger buyers and nostalgic boomers alike. This is another model we didn’t get here, built in relatively high numbers … but which seems to have more demand. Sure they are readily available in Europe and waiting another year would allow a buyer to import one – not under show or display.

Small spoiler. Optioned as a tourer and not a lightweight. This example hammered for $350k at the Porsche 70th Anniversary auction in Atlanta in 2018 on a $500k – $650k estimate. There was not a lot of interest for it then. Not sure there is now either.

As we said in 2018 ‘… just too many 993 RS produced and too many on offer worldwide.’ Pulling the reserve may get this off the runway at a $325k hammer.

 

Lot 062 – 2011 997 GT3 RS 4.0 – 96 M – Black/Black – Estimate $700k to $800k – No Reserve.

This example of the pinnacle 997 model seems to check all the collector boxes. Black/black, many DZ options, 96 miles in the wrapper. Maybe it’s the lowest mileage example extant … can’t know for sure. But what makes this really compelling is that it is offered with no reserve!

We know the original owner of this car who keeps a collection here and in central Europe. Can’t say what he sold the car for … but the seller here knows what they bought is very special. Question is … do enough other people to make it a record setter at auction? We think so but at around a $670k hammer. That is unless there are a couple of prospective owners of what might be the pinnacle example willing to bid it up through the roof.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 082 – 2019 991 Turbo S Exclusive – 23 M – Golden Yellow Metallic /Black – Estimate $275k to $325k – Reserve.

As we said about a similar example in our Scottsdale 2020 preview back in the day the Turbo S mattered … now it’s standard luxury sport fare. The Exclusive offered at Scottsdale could only get to $280k and that was a post live auction deal. Our upcoming market update will show no less than 29 of this model (6 coupe and 23 cabriolet) on the market right now. Like the 991 GT2 RS this really isn’t a live auction car at this point. And this particular example couldn’t be sold recently at Isringhausen with a $305k ask (it’s MSRP) – don’t think it will do better here.

The Turbo S Exclusive was an interesting idea … but things are less valuable than in January and moving this one will a require an all-in price less than its MSRP … with reserve off this is a $245k hammer otherwise no sale.

View this car’s build spec here.

 



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