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PORS9 Market Update July 2019

 

CBA July 2019 Porsche Market Update

Large Price Drops in Top Models Tells a Tale?

 

It seems that as summer rolls forward reality is setting in for those selling the most expensive models. They aren’t moving and it’s not going to get any easier once fall rolls in. We have seen average asking prices for 918 Spyder and Carrera GT in particular fall considerably. These are interesting cases along with the 997 GT2 RS (and others such as the 911R), which have also seen measurable weakness.

It is generally assumed that 918 owners ‘don’t need the money’, maybe so. But it seems that they do ‘want the money’ … before the profits slip away. Buyers certainly seem to doubt the 918’s ability to hold current values. And in truth, as compared to the historical Porsche ownership experience of limted models, they have generated a considerable short term gain in value even though they were built in relatively sizeable numbers only four years ago. It is actually quite remarkable as compared to price history of the 959, rare 1990’s air cooleds and the CGT. 918 owners who do not have a long term perspective may be advised to lower prices to lock in profits before winter … when buyer interest will fade further.

The Carrera GT has been a hot commodity for at least the past nine months. And the inevitable availability of inventory at current asking prices continues to grow. However, there are not an endless string of buyers lined up at current prices – especially for the GT Silver Metallic cars that dominate the available inventory. We will be seeing prices go down before they go up and that is happening. Maybe after the next economic cycle these will be $1m cars … but not in this cycle.

The pinnacle 997 Turbo, the GT2 RS is case study in how loss of market interest can affect valuation. Having hit $500k+ at the peak, now those same cars are $400k or less to sell. While the model certainly has its unique claims to fame (last Mezger turbo, final 997 series turbo, manual transmission), the collectors that must have one are satiated and the rest of the invetory is being passed over by marginal buyers in lieu of the latest and greatest such as the 991 GT2 RS. Speaking of which the 991 GT2 RS certainly did not stimulate the purchase of these. So now prices are dropping in order to clear the market, but the market seems to be responding with a yawn.

We collect daily market data on PORS9 Registry models (by VIN) which we summarize and share in a monthly blog post which we believe is useful as a barometer for the market and its direction over time. Current month data consists of publicly offered examples tracked individually for their time on the market and price as of July 31 2019. Price data is asking.


    Data as of July 31, 2019 – Units/Days on Market/Prices

July-19 180+ 90-180 <90 Total Units Average Ask Average Miles
918 Spyder Base 2 2 2 6 $1,479,450 1,689
918 Spyder Weissach 5 0 5 10 $1,678,856 3,091
Carrera GT 5 4 6 15 $802,202 4,104
911 R 1 2 6 9 $328,046 517
997 Speedster 3 2 1 6 $252,767 7,462
997.1 GT3 6 2 17 25 $98,536 22,012
997.2 GT3 6 3 11 20 $114,426 21,173
991.1 GT3 27 40 88 155 $130,878 12,668
997.1 GT3 RS 11 6 6 23 $162,989 13,853
997.2 GT3 RS 12 8 11 31 $179,242 12,977
997 GT3 RS 4.0 4 1 1 6 $452,940 5,066
991.1 GT3 RS 45 30 60 135 $185,127 4,170
997 GT2 6 3 5 14 $228,405 9,060
997 GT2 RS 3 1 3 7 $408,750 5,959
997.1 Turbo 33 38 103 174 $78,161 37,443
997.2 Turbo 12 11 24 47 $94,599 28,497
997 Turbo S 11 16 51 78 $101,980 25,603
Total 192 169 400 761



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    Data as of July 31, 2019 – Days on Market/Percentages

July-19 180+ 90-180 <90 Total Units
918 Spyder Base 33% 33% 33% 100%
918 Spyder Weissach 50% 0% 50% 100%
Carrera GT 33% 27% 40% 100%
911 R 11% 22% 67% 100%
997 Speedster 50% 33% 17% 100%
997.1 GT3 24% 8% 68% 100%
997.2 GT3 30% 15% 55% 100%
991.1 GT3 17% 26% 57% 100%
997.1 GT3 RS 48% 26% 26% 100%
997.2 GT3 RS 39% 26% 35% 100%
997 GT3 RS 4.0 67% 17% 17% 100%
991.1 GT3 RS 33% 22% 44% 100%
997 GT2 43% 21% 36% 100%
997 GT2 RS 43% 14% 43% 100%
997.1 Turbo 19% 22% 59% 100%
997.2 Turbo 26% 23% 51% 100%
997 Turbo S 14% 21% 65% 100%
Total 25% 22% 53% 100%



WANTED: Porsches for PORS9 Marketplace!



    Data as of July 31, 2019 – 30 Day Change Days on Market/Prices/Units/Percentages

30 Day Delta 180+ 90-180 <90 Total Units Average Ask Average Miles
918 Spyder Base -2 1 -2 -3 $(60,328) 179
918 Spyder Base -50% 100% -50% -33% -4% 12%
918 Spyder Weissach -1 -1 3 1 $(19,208) 629
918 Spyder Weissach -17% -100% 150% 11% -1% 26%
Carrera GT -1 -1 0 -2 $(64,406) 418
Carrera GT -17% -20% 0% -12% -7% 11%
911 R 0 1 2 3 $(18,383) (3)
911 R 0% 100% 50% 50% -5% -1%
997 Speedster 0 1 -1 0 $4,283 1
997 Speedster 0% 100% -50% 0% 2% 0%
997.1 GT3 1 -5 3 -1 $3,686 (5,124)
997.1 GT3 20% -71% 21% -4% 4% -19%
997.2 GT3 -2 0 1 -1 $(560) 2,013
997.2 GT3 -25% 0% 10% -5% 0% 11%
991.1 GT3 0 2 8 10 $(2,661) 500
991.1 GT3 0% 5% 10% 7% -2% 4%
997.1 GT3 RS 0 3 -1 2 $(4,906) 96
997.1 GT3 RS 0% 100% -14% 10% -3% 1%
997.2 GT3 RS 2 -1 -1 0 $(677) 167
997.2 GT3 RS 20% -11% -8% 0% 0% 1%
997 GT3 RS 4.0 1 -1 0 0 $(5,000)
997 GT3 RS 4.0 33% -50% 0% 0% -1% 0%
991.1 GT3 RS 7 1 -15 -7 $(2,454) (37)
991.1 GT3 RS 18% 3% -20% -5% -1% -1%
997 GT2 2 -1 -1 0 $(1,491)
997 GT2 50% -25% -17% 0% -1% 0%
997 GT2 RS 0 0 -1 -1 $(19,072) 150
997 GT2 RS 0% 0% -25% -13% -4% 3%
997.1 Turbo -2 5 -11 -8 $307 960
997.1 Turbo -6% 15% -10% -4% 0% 3%
997.2 Turbo 0 2 -5 -3 $1,265 (570)
997.2 Turbo 0% 22% -17% -6% 1% -2%
997 Turbo S 2 1 -9 -6 $614 2,623
997 Turbo S 22% 7% -15% -7% 1% 11%
Total 7 7 -30 -16
Total 4% 4% -7% -2%



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