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PORS9 Market Update April 2019

 

CBA April 2019 Market Update

From on fire … to burnt?

The Expectation Gap is Narrowing

 

Members, Friends and Colleagues – we have been collecting market data on PORS9 Registry models (by VIN) for the past 24 month which we use for everything from general vehicle valuation to pricing forecasts used in our Auction previews. We decided to start a monthly blog post that shares some of this data, hopefully in a way that proves useful in interpreting the current market and market direction. As we go along we will find new ways to augment and present the data … this is the start.

The market has softened considerably over the past 12 months and as a result the gap widened between seller’s expectations and buyer’s interest. We know that many sellers locked in at prices between 2015-2017 which prices are now off 15%-40% depending upon the model. This tends to create an artificial floor for sellers (actual or psychological) – and the rarer the model the stronger the floor. The same cannot be said for recent releases such as the 991 GT2 RS which transacted for as much as $150k over MSRP a year ago only to be at MSRP plus change today. But Porsche over produced these new additions which means their floors are weak.

The expectations gap appears to be starting to narrow as sellers have either removed their cars from the market or lowered their expectations to current market clearing levels. We will as a result likely see some clearing of the inventory. It is not clear how Porsche ending the 991 model run and therefore creating at least a two year gap before the next 992 GT3/RS’s etc. hit the market will impact prices, if at all.

The biggest thing to note at the moment is how many cars have been on the market for 90+ and 180+ days. It’s a lot as a percentage of the cars on offer.

The following tables are based upon publicly offered examples tracked individually for their time on the market and price as of April 30 2019 (does not include private offers not advertised on a major ad platform). Prices are asking. The information is meant as a barometer for the market and its direction over time.

    Data as of April 30, 2019 – Days on Market

Units/Days 180+ Days 90-180 Days < 90 Days Total Units
918 Spyder 10 1 7 18
Carrera GT 4 3 8 15
911 R 3 1 7 11
997.1 GT3/RS 12 13 13 38
997.2 GT3/RS 17 12 35 64
991.1 GT3 19 27 94 140
991.1 GT3RS 40 33 93 166
997.1 Turbo 30 26 103 159
997.2 Turbo/S 18 19 89 126

    Data as of April 30, 2019 – Average Asking Price and Ask Price per Mile

Model/Data Average Ask Average Miles Ask Price per Mile*
918 Spyder $1,627,830 1,981 $1,422
Carrera GT $868,777 4,743 $707
911 R $317,997 400 $2,777
997.1 GT3/RS $136,278 19,580 $15
997.2 GT3/RS $150,692 16,123 $14
991.1 GT3 $136,244 11,674 $17
991.1 GT3RS $195,634 4,094 $134
997.1 Turbo $76,108 36,643 $3
997.2 Turbo/S $99,526 24,504 $6

    *Based on vehicles listing both price and mileage.



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