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Amelia 2019 Auction Preview

 

 

CBA Previews Amelia 2019 Auctions

Is Amelia the Place to Sell Porsches?

New Offering Strategies Implemented?

 

In 2018 it seemed it was being established that Amelia Island had taken over from Scottsdale as the place to sell Porsches. Unfortunately weather conditions last year spoiled the party as we wrote about here. Last year both Gooding and RM had a nice selection of interesting Porsches – but it seems this year, if Gooding didn’t have a suite of cars from collector Jan Koum on tap, there would be a dearth of interesting Porsches (to us) on offer here. Bonhams isn’t offering anything that fits our preview. So then, a couple of things we will be looking for.

Gooding has committed to Amelia (as it is one of only three annual auctions for them) in a big way. Their Porsche sales at Amelia 2018 were up 250% over Scottsdale 2018 while RM’s were up only 50%. But Goodings Scottsdale 2019 Porsche sales figures were off year on year by 41% (total sales down 1%) while RM’s were up by 25% (total sales up 1%). RM may be spreading themselves thin these days but their concentration risk at a given auction is certainly smaller. It seems Gooding is counting on Amelia in a big way and so they will need to see a strong result. Unfortunately they are starting off on the wrong foot given their Scottsdale results so we’ll see if they can turn the corner here.

RM at Amelia has seen an improvement in their CBA Ratio falling to 172% from 335% in 2017. Gooding on the other hand has gone from selling everything in 2015 to a whopping 694% CBA Ratio at Amelia 2018 – meaning the most profitable big ticket lots didn’t sell. Gooding’s ratio will improve this year as the entire suite of Koum cars are no reserve and so will sell (which will greatly skew their CBA Ratio which is impacted by no sales).

CBA Ratio = (average unit value of no sales lots/average unit value of sold lots). The CBA Ratio illustrates the relative value of the no sale inventory compared to the sold inventory. It combines the effects of the dollar amount of no sales v. sales with the average value per lot of no sales v. sales. As the total dollar amount of no sales increases v. the total dollar amount of sales and/or the average last bid price of no sale lots increases v. the average hammer price of sold lots – the ratio increases. A higher ratio generally means that relatively more lots remain unsold and those lots are of higher value compared to the rest of the auction’s lots.

We have been forecasting that offering strategy will increasingly have an impact on results. Our prescription has been for auction houses to maintain reserves but to lower the price range estimates. And it seems RM is implementing this strategy to some degree. Gooding appears to be on an opposite tack taking a no reserve strategy and wrapping it in wide ranging estimate – many probably too high. We’ll see if one or the other pays off. Actual sales above or below low estimate will be the tell.

In summary if it were not for the Koum cars Amelia 2019 would seem pretty mundane with not a lot of real interest on offer. That said, most people don’t know who Jan Koum is and as we have seen lately, most recently with the tepid result for Seinfeld’s unique RS 4.0 at Atlanta in 2018, ‘previous owner’ premiums are almost entirely non-existant. So we wouldn’t expect any particular valuation or interest boost from that alone in this case.

So let’s take a look at what might happen.

 

Gooding and Company

Lot 021 – 2018 Porsche 991 GT2 RS Weissach – 120 M – White Black Leather/Alcantara – estimate $400k to $500k – Reserve.

As we wrote in our Scottsdale 2019 preview, ‘We are just seeing the start of the 991 GT2 RS hitting auction blocks and certainly more are to come.’ And so here we go.

They are still making these and the auction listing – which states that a limited run of 1,000 examples is envisioned by Porsche – not only understates global production numbers but our forecast for North America alone (we forecast 1,250 units for North America).

It’s a not so rare Weissach package – over 90% of the ordered GT2 RS’ are Weissachs. Low mileage is expected. It’s MSRP is dead on average at $340k. And its option package is also average. We underestimated the hammer price for the GT Silver car a Scottsdale.

We are sticking to our guns as there are even more 991 GT2 RS’s on the market now than there were then … $360k hammer if reserve is pulled.

 

Lot 042 – 1993 964 RS 3.8 – 15.2k KM – Speed Yellow Black/Grey – estimate $1.2m to $1.5m – No Reserve.

Due to contractual obligations our ability to disclose the entire history of this vehicle is restricted. Our estimates of the market for, and value of, this vehicle are our unbiased opinion based solely upon current market conditions.

A Koum offering and probably the best of the bunch – or least the rarest. Porsche built 55 1993 3.8 RS models and 1 prototype. The 964 3.8 RS had its own VIN series distinct from the 964 3.8 RSR (the prototype vehicle was built on a 1993 Carrera 2 chassis). Three examples were built in right hand drive and ten in a Clubsport variation (including one Clubsport in RHD). No vehicles were constructed for North America.

A Japan car which we always warn about but from a solid collection so probably all correct. A 964 3.8 RS does not come to market very often so it’s hard to know where the market really is. Lack of supply pushed a 6.8k KM example also Speed Yellow to a $1.5m hammer at Amelia last year – a record price.

We can see this one at a $1.35m hammer.

 

Lot 043 – 1995 993 RS – 55k KM – Speed Yellow/Black – estimate $325k to $375k – No Reserve.

Due to contractual obligations our ability to disclose the entire history of this vehicle is restricted. Our estimates of the market for, and value of, this vehicle are our unbiased opinion based solely upon current market conditions.

A driven 993 RS. This model was built in a relatively large number and there is really nothing all that remarkable about this example. Unfortunately a show or display conversion as these can now be brought in to the U.S. unmodified (this one is no longer on mileage restriction but it cannot be reconverted to original spec).

Someone could pick up a driveable $290k hammer 993 RS here.

 

Lot 044 – 2008 997 GT3 RS – 12.5k M – RS Green/Black Leather – estimate $250k to $300k – No Reserve.

Due to contractual obligations our ability to disclose the entire history of this vehicle is restricted. Our estimates of the market for, and value of, this vehicle are our unbiased opinion based solely upon current market conditions.

It’s the right color – desireable RS Green. Higher than average MSRP but not the highest RS Green (which was $165,790). Miles are not super low. The listing states ‘Limited production’ but it was not a limited series model. These are out there and prices have come off considerably since the peak. Other RS Green examples are out there with similar asks to the low estimate on this one and they have even lower miles, yet they have been on the market for a considerable time.

The estimate range is too high for a car that should hammer at $215k.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 045 – 2010 997 GT3 RS – 5.5k M – Grey Black//Black Red Accents – estimate $180k to $220k – No Reserve.

Due to contractual obligations our ability to disclose the entire history of this vehicle is restricted. Our estimates of the market for, and value of, this vehicle are our unbiased opinion based solely upon current market conditions.

This car is in the right color and spec. Three owner history is not the best but it really depends upon on how it was driven – miles are relatively low so it was probably treated well. Some prefer the contrasting color in White Gold Metallic over the Guards Red.

This car is right at low estimate – $180k hammer.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 046 – 2011 997 GT3 RS 4.0 – 159 M – Carrara White/Standard Interior Black/Red Seats Leather/Alcantara – estimate $550k to $625k – No Reserve.

Due to contractual obligations our ability to disclose the entire history of this vehicle is restricted. Our estimates of the market for, and value of, this vehicle are our unbiased opinion based solely upon current market conditions.

The first of the super low mileage offerings from The Koum Collection, this car is as new. A museum piece that can’t be driven without hurting its value – but driving is in vogue these days. Unfortunately, for some time we have been marketing an even lower mileage example, also in Carrara White, but it cannot command a sticky mid $500k’s offer. The much more interesting, but higher mileage, Seinfeld RS 4.0 hammered at $510k.

That all said we can see a $495k hammer.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 047 – 2011 997 GT2 RS – 449 M – Carrara White/Full Leather Interior Black – estimate $550k to $650k – No Reserve.

Due to contractual obligations our ability to disclose the entire history of this vehicle is restricted. Our estimates of the market for, and value of, this vehicle are our unbiased opinion based solely upon current market conditions.

We’ve been lamenting the drop off in prices for the 997 GT2 RS since the peak. And they have not really leveled out. Recent price action has been anemic. It is a series limited to 500 units worldwide which should mean something given how many cars can be produced these days and yet still be called a ‘limited series’ by Porsche.

The listing states that, ‘This example is believed to be one of only 16 built for the US with carbon fiber front fenders’, however the PORS9 search app shows that there were 55 built for North America with this highly desirable option – code 589 Carbon Front Fenders (15 of those in Carrara White).

The estimate range on this one makes little sense given the current market. A hammer at $440k would put it at the top of the price range.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 048 – 2015 918 Spyder Weissach – 40 M – Liquid Metal Chrome Blue/Authentic Leather Interior Onyx Black with Acid Green Piping – estimate $1.8m to $2.0m – No Reserve.

Due to contractual obligations our ability to disclose the entire history of this vehicle is restricted. Our estimates of the market for, and value of, this vehicle are our unbiased opinion based solely upon current market conditions.

We long forcasted that around this time we would see plenty of 918’s on the market and/or available for private sale. And so we have. There are a lot of interesting spec cars currently on offer … but as with many other special and/or limited late model Porsches they sit unsold due to unrealistic asking prices.

The 12 layer special paint (nine coats of the Liquid Metal paint applied with high precision, three manual processing stages, and three final clear coats) on this one is somewhat unique as the PORS9 search app shows just 17 examples of the 918 built in Liquid Metal Chrome Blue for North America. Otherwise the option suite is fairly standard.

While delivery miles may be the exception, low miles are not. Certainly there are other delivery miles 918s locked away. This one is not paint to sample nor special livery … so the money is all about the miles. So what should the premium be?

A $1.65m hammer is achievable for a new 918.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 050 – 2016 991 911 R – 13 M – White/Leather Interior in Black with GT Silver Stitching – estimate $350k to $450k – No Reserve.

Due to contractual obligations our ability to disclose the entire history of this vehicle is restricted. Our estimates of the market for, and value of, this vehicle are our unbiased opinion based solely upon current market conditions.

The Black 20 mile example at RM Pebble 2018 hammered at $340k hammer and since that time values have retracted. The time to sell this car was probably then. As many 911R’s were bought with long (and short) term speculation in mind there are certainly others out there with window stickers attached. This one is in the most common White but does have the must have single mass flywheel option. Has some nice stitching and carbon fiber options.

A $310k hammer would land it at all-in around $125k over sticker.

View this car’s build spec here.

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Lot 083 – 2004 Carrera GT – 4.4k M – GT Silver Metallic/Dark Grey – estimate $650k to $750k – Reserve.

Estimating the price of individual Carrera GT examples has become more exacting these days. Color, year, mileage, usage history, deferred maintenance and number of owners all come in to play. GT Silver Metallic is the most common color and quite a few of that color are on the market at any given time – the Dark Grey interior is desirable. 2004 model year still carries the software glitch (nee ‘glossy clutch’) stigma. Mileage on this one is not unreasonable and major services and tires have been done not so many miles ago – the cost of which can add up quickly as you can read about here. But that it needed a new clutch at these miles raises flags.

The car was owned by CJ Wilson prior to the current (3rd) owners (the founders of Mobiliti a car subscription – essentially rental – service). The CGT clutch used right is pretty robust. With Wilson as owner one can assume proper maintenance – but also that it may have been driven like the race car it essentially is and thereby the need for a new clutch at such low miles. Hard to say for sure … but not a positive when so many GT Silver’s with similar miles can be had which have their original clutch intact with plenty of meat left.

If it were another color, another year and had a different history it would hammer for more than the $600k we forecast … assuming reserve is pulled.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

RM Sothebys

Lot 117 – 2004 Carrera GT – 1,600 M – Seal Grey Metallic/Dark Grey – estimate $600k to $750k – Reserve.

Following on the discussion above regarding the Carrera GT, this one is in more desirable color scheme, has single ownership and less miles. The model year carries a penalty. But as with most low mileage one owner Carrera GT’s, despite the description’s claim that the car was ‘professionally maintained’, any deferred maintenance can have a wide range of potential costs.

Does it need tires, has it had the requisite engine out service, what else has deteriorated or needs replacing just from sitting? Oil changes and new batteries are just the surface of it. Much more lies beneath the carbon fiber reinforced plastic body panels. Again a buyer is encouraged to read our treatise on this subject.

Deducting for the unknowns this car should hammer for $675k.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 118 – 2015 918 Spyder Base – 1,300 M – Dark Blue Metallic/Leather Interior Onyx Black with Acid Green Piping – estimate $1.25m to $1.5m – Reserve.

According to the PORS9 search app this is the only 918 in Dark Blue Metallic (1 of 9 total) delivered to North America with Leather Interior Onyx Black with Acid Green Piping. 918 Spyder Wheels Platinum Satin are a nice touch. It is a Base model but has front axle lift and carbon fiber interior package.

On its second owner, this car was offered by its original owner with 817 miles at Bonhams Scottsdale 2017. With an estimate range of $1.3m – $1.5m it was a no sale with a high bid of $1.25m. Unfortunately since then 918 prices have softened considerably and it sits with 1,300 miles. Base models are harder to sell. MSRP was $875k.

Hammer at $1.15m if reserve is lifted.

View this car’s build spec here.

 

Lot 134 – 2018 991 GT2 RS Weissach – 200 M – GT Silver Metallic/Leather Alcantara Black/Red – estimate $340k to $380k – Reserve.

Having a GT2 RS in the mix may be requisite for auction houses for a while to come. This example has an MSRP right at the $340k average for the 991 GT2 RS. It’s mileage and estimate range should cause pain to those who paid substantial ADM’s or aftermarket prices to own one of these. Again they are still building them and anecdotally there are a few new ones sitting at dealers unsold! A nice car but nothing special in the options department.

A hammer at $375k would be an outcome which reflects the real market.

 



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