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Amelia Island 2018 Auction Preview

 

 

CBA Previews Amelia 2018
Rare 1990’s Porsche Cornucopia
Questions to be Answered!

 

Is Amelia the #1 U.S. Auction for Porsches?

It’s Amelia 2018 and some serious Porsche hardware is on offer, making this the most in depth sale of rare 1990’s air cooled’s in a single auction weekend for many years – and perhaps establishing Amelia as the most important auction of the year for collectible 1990’s Porsches. Maybe more so than Pebble Beach. This auction feels a lot like RM London 2016 or RM Paris 2017 when financial markets were strong and it was obvious that the rarest cars were not going down in price.

Amelia 2018 promises to answer some serious questions. Are rare air cooled Porsche prices on the rise or stagnant? Will the strongest euro to dollar rate in three years push dollar bids up – and American buyers out? Are North American millennial GT car prices stabilizing or is there more room to fall? These and many other questions we hope will be answered.

Gooding & Company

Lot 008 – 1997 993 Turbo S – 22,000 M – Ocean Blue Metallic/Black – estimate $300k – $375k. In the 1990’s it was common to think of what we now consider rare air cooled Porsches as depreciating assets. Hence performance modifications were en vogue. This car is ANDIAL modifed. To command a premium in today’s market it should have been returned to original prior to sale. As we have noted in the past ‘the bloom is off the 993 Turbo S from its highs in 2016‘. Great color though, but multiple  owners. This car will hammer around low estimate which would cover the cost of returning it to its original state while still being in it right.

Lot 013 – 2011 997 GT2RS – 800 M – Black/Black –  estimate $500k – $600k. These are great limited production cars but have not been able to command the kind of money that a similar 997 RS 4.0 could. Hammering above $500k has proven difficult for these even at the peak of millennial Porsche prices. There are equally nice examples available right now for less than low estimate. Miles are right but 3 owners is 2 too many at this price. The spec is nothing special. Low estimate or maybe even No Sale unless reserve is pulled. View this car’s build spec here.

Lot 044 – 2015 918 Spyder Base – 2,500 M (many driven by Hurley Haywood which may not exactly be what you want) – Liquid Metal Silver/CTS Red Leather – estimate $1.4m – $1.7m. It’s a high MSRP Base model ($988,800 MSRP v. average Base model MSRP of $903,541 and higher than the average Weissach MSRP of $982,529). Well optioned in LMS ($63k paint option – which is surprisingly the 2nd most common Base color after GT Silver Metallic), CTS Red Leather interior, Weissach mag wheels and more. That all said the special Guards Red Base at Scottsdale with delivery miles could not crack $1.55m and was NO SALE – but its color was not for everybody. And as we noted in our Scottsdale preview there are many more 918 Spyder to surface in 2018. The 918 is probably the trickiest model to forecast  right now but we think this one could hammer at around $1.5m. View this car’s build spec here.

Lot 053 – 1992 Turbo S Leichtbau (TSL)  – 95 KM – Midnight Blue/Oxblood Red – LHD – estimate $1.6m – $2.0m. We offered this car for sale in 2014 along with its RHD Polar Silver Metallic sister car. One of six cars from the collection of Hong Kong’s Michael Mak Shun Ming et. al. The collection included two LHD TSL’s  #003 Polar Silver/Flamenco Red and #011 Midnight Blue Metallic/Oxblood Red, two RHD TSL’s #085 Polar Silver/Flamenco Red and #086 Grand Prix White/Flamenco Red and two full leather interior 964 RSR’s #107 Polar Silver/Flamenco Red and #109 Grand Prix White/Flamenco Red. The cars were offered for purchase only in matched pairs (2 RHD TSL, 2 LHD TSL and 2 RSR). There is quite a long story behind how these cars finally got into individual new hands.

For those who were lucky enough to stumble onto them (and we were) this car and two of its siblings were on display at the now gone Auto Collections in Imperial Palace (now Linq) Las Vegas in 2012. With Purple wheels and full Red Leather interiors these specials were custom built during the Exclusive department’s ‘there is nothing that can’t be done for a price’ era of 1990 – 1995. Along with a few other rare and extreme examples such as 1994 Turbo S Flachbau X84 #457 and #469 and X85 #463, this car represents the height of hand tailored leather extremism of the 90’s.

The sister LHD #003 sold in Germany for €1.5m in 2016 at the peak of the market and the dollar. Today, in euro anyways, mid-estimate is not far off from that. Arguably TSL’s are even more in demand today than at that time and this may be the example a non-dollar buyer needs to have – dollar buyers may struggle with the price. This is one of only four specified like this, and the best of the four in our opinion, we can see this car going for $1.7m … but then again it might be the first $2m TSL! Either way it should set the new bar.

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Lot 054 – 1996 993 3.8 RS – 12,900 KM – Riviera Blue/Black/Grey – LHD – estimate $600k – $700k. This car is the right color but it has the big Club Sport wing that many, in the US anyway, do not prefer. It’s standard optioned to be light with no airbag system and manual windows. But its weighted down by optional AC. It does have special heated bucket seats which is rare. This is very good KM for a 993 RS but it has had 5 owners. Euro provenance. As we noted in our Scottsdale 2018 preview there were simply too many 993 RS built. Certainly other low mileage examples are out there and some of those in Riviera Blue. We also note that a true Club Sport in Guards Red with 8,918 KM went all in for $535,000 in London 2016. Toss up on this one. Ironically it could stretch up to low estimate for a EU buyer who wants to bring it back, but for a US buyer it probably requires something less than low estimate to hammer.

Lot 055 – 1996 993 GT2 Strassenversion – 9,700 KM – Speed Yellow/Black/Yellow – LHD – estimate $1.5m – $1.8m. This is a low KM top condition example and that matters for a model that is typically hard driven and in need of paint work. EU provenance. Cool color match inserts. That it has AC and power windows may be its only ordering flaws. The real question is can a 993 GT2 command this number (RM London 2016’s bizarre over reach aside)? We think $1.5m is possible for this car as that would put the car at €1.2m a price which should be attractive to euro buyers.

Lot 073 – 1987 959 Komfort – 7,400 KM – Guards Red/Burgundy – LHD – estimate $900k – 1.2m NO RESERVE. Gooding Monterey 2005 – the good old days – and this same car cleared for $308,000. Fast forward and 959’s are commanding much bigger money although down from a few years ago. This example has been through a few hands since import from Japan and is EPA modified – which is no longer necessary for import and therefore should incur a price concession Helps that its the only 959 at Amelia. As we stated in our  Scottsdale 2018 recapA 959 Komfort is a $1m car under 10k miles.’ This car should reinforce that point. And even with no reserve – which would indicate a possible bargain in the making – it should clear the low estimate hurdle.

Lot 076 – 1997 993 Turbo S – 15,000 M – Polar Silver Metallic/Black – estimate $325k – $375k. Gooding having two 993 Turbo S at one auction is bit odd from the standpoint that this model is not on the upswing – rather the opposite. As we stated in our Pebble Beach 2017 recap, ‘The 993 Turbo S was never really a collector favorite … it seems no low production air cooled Porsche has fallen more in value from its peak‘. Polar Silver is common. Multiple owner car. With no reserve some one can get a bargain at a $275k hammer.

Lot 078 – 2016 991 GT3RS – 170 Miles – Lava Orange/Black/Lava Orange – estimate $175k – $250k NO RESERVE. The most common color for a 991 GT3RS (391 of 1447 units for North America). Seems to be a toss in by the consignor to go with some other interesting cars brought in. Market asking prices for 991 GT3RS are quite overly optimistic at the moment and there are literally dozens on offer. With no reserve a buyer could get a bargain here, but high estimate is a well out of reach. Low estimate or lower. View this car’s build spec here.

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Lot 081 – 2005 Carrera GT – 109 Miles – GT Silver Metallic/Terra Cotta – estimate $800k – $1m NO RESERVE. In our Scottsdale 2018 recap we declared ‘Miles, condition, color and all the usual stuff considered these cars are $550k – $700k … in truth they never were $850k+ cars except for a few with no miles or PTS.‘ A similar car with 685 miles was so sale with low estimate $775k at RM’s 2017 NY Icons. GT Silver Metallic is by far the most common CGT color. This example’s value proposition is one owner and low miles. With no reserve we can see this car hammering for as much as $775k.View this car’s build spec here.

RM Sothebys

Lot 138 – 2011 Speedster – Carrara White – 1,500 M – estimate $250k – $300k NO RESERVE. At Scottsdale 2018 a similar example with 980 miles hammered at $250k. We observed that ‘Maybe a convertible Porsche (that’s not a 356 Speedster) just can’t be that collectible?‘. It is a limited numbered edition car (356 built worldwide – 107 for North America). No reserve bargain hunters will be looking for a $225k hammer. See this vehicle’s details at this link.

Lot 167 – 1993 964 3.8 RS – Speed Yellow/Black/Grey – 6,826 KM – LHD – estimate $1.25m – $1.5m. We looked at this car in Japan in 2014 with Manfred Freisinger. But the car got hung up in an extended estate battle and rumor is that the winning bidder had to bring cash in a suitcase to close the transaction! Such are the stories behind some of the most coveted of the rare air cooled Porsches of the 1990’s. But recent history has not seen an example sell for over $1m. Yes it’s a very rare car and they don’t show up often but its hard to see it hammering at $1.5m.  Low estimate at $1.1m would have been a better starting point to get it to a $1.35m hammer.

Lot 168 – 1994 3.6 Turbo S Flachbau X85 – Speed Yellow/Black – 28,874 miles – estimate $600k – $800k. We sourced this car from the prior owner’s heirs for delivery to the current owner so we know it well. It is the only Speed Yellow X85 Flachbau. The car was thought by its then owner, who had little understanding of it, to have some mechanical problem and was thus shipped off to a Porsche specialist in the Midwest. The specialist managed to run up a $60k+ bill over not much – it’s still not clear that anything was really wrong with the car. When the owner balked over the bill the car was held hostage for a period – not so pretty. Fast forward to today and this car is fully sorted. Given that the Grand Prix White X84 that had some poorly done accident repair hammered at $650k at Pebble 2017 this 1 of 1 color X85, but otherwise standard spec example, could hammer at $750k.View this car here. And the window sticker here.

Lot 170 – 1992 Turbo S Leichtbau (TSL) – Speed Yellow/Black/Grey  – 36,142 KM  – LHD – estimate $1m – $1.2m. We looked this car in Japan in 2015. It’s a look alike to the factory show car in standard Speed Yellow. For someone looking to get into the super rare TSL this could be the right car at $1m. If the appetite is there the car could hammer at high estimate, but its KM, a 19% VAT penalty for EU buyers plus 10% auction commission will probably prevent that. View this car here.

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Lot 172 – 1994 964 Turbo S Flachbau X83 – Polar Silver/ Black (they all are) – 74,532 KM – LHD (they all are) – estimate $500k – $650k. This model was featured along with PORS9 founder and subject matter expert Mark Smith in the April 2018 edition of Excellence Magazine article ‘X Marks the Spot’ a timely tribute to the rare X83. And with only 10 built they are among the rarest ever! A unique combination of 930 slant nose and 3.6 Turbo. You love it or hate it. Either way they cannot seem to command the kind of money that their sibling models X84 and X85 do.

In 2013 we sourced this car #470291 from its original owner, a UCLA trained dentist located in Yokohama Japan, and it made its way into the current owner’s collection. This is the first X83 ever imported into the US and was the basis for the Show and Display application for this model which contributed to developing. At Scottsdale 2018 #470326 with 35,000 KM was a no sale at $500k. Its hard to imagine this one doing better. Either the reserve comes off or this is a No Sale.

Lot 176 – 1993 964 3.8 RSR – PTS Ferrari Yellow/ Black – 765 KM – LHD – estimate $1.2- $1.4m. One of the most raw Porsches of the 1990’s and far less civilized than its awesome 993 descendant such as this one we sourced from Japan for Jerry Seinfeld. While the 964 3.8 RS homologation car commands all the attention, this is the real deal. This is the normally aspirated 964 you want! One of the three 3.8 RSR’s shipped to Japan and apparently barely used, certainly never raced. It was not uncommon in the 1990s for Japanese collectors to buy production race cars for limited street use. And this one in PTS Ferrari Yellow (the only PTS 964 3.8 RSR built which is not mentioned in the auction description) was obviously never meant to race (no one orders PTS race cars to actually race).

At Pebble Beach 2017#081 sold all in for $946,000 but it was a raced car. The 1994 IMSA GT2 overall title winner, but nonetheless a raced car. This one is something maybe more special. A never raced car! If the hammer goes down at anything below high estimate a bargain was had as this is a true collectible.

Bonhams

Lot 183 – 1996 993 GT2 Strassenversion – Speed Yellow/Black/Grey – 41,902 KM – LHD – estimate $1.1 – $1.3m. We looked at this car in 2015 in Japan but passed due to paint work. The Japanese will paint something at the drop of the hat so the work itself does not necessarily mean something bad, but paint work done in Japan is not top shelf. Speed Yellow on 993 GT2 is more common than the auction description indicates. Japanese ownership history is hard to know for sure. This car was recently on offer from Crave Luxury Auto where it did not sell.At RM’s NY Icons 2017 a 11,470 KM Grand Prix White 993 GT2 Strassenversion was a no sale at with low estimate at $1.1m. This one is relatively high KM. Not sure that this can hit low estimate for a dollar buyer and EU buyers may not pay up for a Japanese 993 GT2 even with today’s weak dollar, when confronted with a 10% commission plus import 19% VAT. A savvy buyer may prefer to negotiate a better deal off line … if reserve is not pulled then No Sale.

Lot 195 – 1995 993 RS 3.8 – Grand Prix White/Black/Grey – 28,973 KM – LHD – estimate $350k – $450k. The 993 RS seems to be a fairly common Japan import these days. While its sourcing from Japan is not a commentary on this particular car, when you add the usual things we say about the 993 RS (too many produced, many available for sale etc.) it all adds up. US buyers seem to prefer the small wing not the Club Sport wing. And this car’s spec is nothing unusual. At low estimate, for a dollar buyer, this car might make sense … EU buyers will not want to pay commission plus VAT for an average example.

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