Scottsdale 2018 Recap
Lot 11 – 2004 Carrera GT – GT Silver Metallic /Ascot- 2,900 miles – 2 owner – estimate $650k – $850k.
Hammer Price: $650,000
What we said: We think this is could be a $650k car (even though its a 2004, but that’s another discussion)… it’s not an $850k car. See this vehicle’s details at this link.
Our take: Seems like Carrera GT prices have settled. Miles, condition, color and all the usual stuff considered these cars are $550k – $700k which is not bad given where they started at the 2012 floor … in truth they never were $850k+ cars except for a few with no miles or PTS … and wont be until their next up cycle – which probably wont happen until the first wave of 918’s are flushed out. Look for collectors to start assembling their own take on the Porsche super car trio (959, 980, 918).
Lot 144 – 2011 GT3RS 3.8 – Grey Black – 2,690 miles – 3 owner – estimate $225k – $275k.
Hammer Price: $180,000
What we said: This car sold for $214,500 … Would be a nice car at the 2017 price. See this vehicle’s details at this link.
Our take: Reserve was pulled to move the car … evidently it had to go. Prices on these have fallen to the hammer price and lower.
Lot 149 – 2015 918 Spyder Base – Guards Red/Garnet – 73 miles – 1 owner – estimate $1.8m – $2m.
Hammer Price: No Sale at $1.55m
What we said: … the pricing is optimistic given the pricing history for 918’s and the fact that certainly many more are coming to market in 2018. We don’t see it cracking the $2m mark.
Our take: Seller may regret not taking the $1.55m if they really wanted to sell this car any time soon. 2018 will see many interesting 918’s coming out from underneath their covers and at prices well below this (same as with 911 R’s – see below). As a result buyers are wait and see … and why not?
Lot 153 – 1994 964 Turbo S Flachbau X83 – Polar Silver/ Black (they all are) – 35k KM – Japan car (they all are) – estimate $600k – $700k.
Hammer Price: No Sale at $500,000
What we said: If its rarity and true uniqueness can finally be appreciated we may very well see this car crack the high estimate – which it deserves.
Our take: One is confirmed totaled, one is in the Middle East and six are here in the U.S. … only two left in Japan – the universe is that small. The Japanese smartened up beginning in 2015 and started asking all the money for their collectible air cooled Porsches. This one is a late comer to the U.S. (2016) … the buyer is probably in it for $500k. Maybe one day this car will get the respect it deserves, but for now it remains the middle child of the 1994 ‘Turbo S’ family (X83, X84, X85, X88).
Lot 155 – 1987 959 Komfort – Polar Silver Metallic/Black – 8,900 miles (14,323km) – Canepa import – estimate $1m – $1.25m.
Hammer Price: $1,050,000
What we said: Any 959 can now be imported without modification … one could argue it’s a $1m car, we’ll see. Note: CBA has on offer 1 of 29 959 Sport, and it is one of the best examples extant, contact us for more info.
Our take: A 959 Komfort is a $1m car under 10k miles. 959 pricing seems pretty stable despite declining Porsche prices. These were a little more expensive a few year ago, but not that much more. Curious what a similar unmodified car would command?
Lot 231 – 2011 Speedster – Carrara White – 980 miles – listed as 1 owner but is 2 owner per Experian AutoCheck – estimate $250k – $300k.
Hammer Price: $250,000
What we said: This is a limited numbered edition car … We can see this car (even with the XM hump) with just 980 miles going at high estimate. See this vehicle’s details at this link.
Our take: There a lot fewer of these than most other numbered edition Porsches of the past 6 or 7 years. While it’s not a performance model like a GT, a few still sold in the past two years north of $300k. But most at $225k-$250k and they now appear once again to be still stuck in that rut. Maybe a convertible Porsche (that’s not a 356 Speedster) just can’t be that collectible?
Lot 263 – 1996 993 RS 3.8 – Polar Silver Metallic – 10,629 km – Japan car (argh – with usual caveats) – estimate $425k – $450k. /p>
Hammer Price: $385,000
What we said: … its hard to justify over paying for these … we think this car has a very high probability of being a no sale.
Our take: Word on the ground this was a rough car for its miles. We thought it would be no sale at low estimate and it almost was. But the seller let it go rather than take it back home and the buyer paid around the low estimate ‘all in’ – not so bad.
Lot 15 – 1996 993 RS 3.8 – Polar Silver Metallic – 67,297 km – Japan car (argh again) – estimate $375k – $475k.
Hammer Price: No Sale at $330k open
What we said: See RM Sotheby’s lot #263 immediately above. Unless the seller is too deep into it – this car will sell because the reserve will be lifted.
Our take: The $330k was not a bid just an opening number. In fact the car had no bids it seems. We thought it would be unloaded (again see RM Sotheby’s lot #263 immediately above) … we are surprised that the seller did not go lower just to juice the action – and if it didn’t sell at a good number simply pass. The seller must be in it for more than they would like to be. A Japanese car with these KM, not sure what they were thinking on the estimate.
Lot 51- 2015 918 Spyder Base – Black – 2,278 miles – 1 owner – estimate $1.2m – $1.6m.
Hammer Price: $1,175,000
What we said: … as a ‘driver’ the low estimate is not the premium to this car’s MSRP of $892,775 (a higher than average MSRP mostly due to the optional Magnesium wheels) that many 918’s are seeking. We can see this car selling at +/- $1.4m. See this vehicle’s details at this link.
Our take: This was an interesting and telling surprise. We certainly underestimated the depth of the 918 price slide. Will be very interesting to see how 918 prices play out over 2018. The market seems to know what is to come (see Gooding lot #149 above). Any VIP’s who have given up their status for whatever reason, and who still have their 918’s, will regret not selling a few years ago when these were very hard to source and prices were strong. Seller hopes for cracking the $2m mark on any 918 should be fading.
Lot 52 – 2016 911R – PTS Linden (Birch) Green (listing states Acid Green) – 38 miles – 1 original owner – estimate $400k – $500k.
Hammer Price: $435,000
What we said: … in 2018 we will certainly see many more of these to select from … we can see this car hammering at around $450k. See this vehicle’s details at this link.
Our take: Our forecast fell smack in the middle of the hammer and all in prices. There are a lot of 911 R’s for sale at the moment with more are to come. A run of the mill R is a $350k to $400k car at the moment no matter what dealers are asking – which is still a very decent profit on MSRP given the short hold period (maybe better than the S&P 500). PTS may hold up much better, but unless Porsche produces fewer limited edition cars going forward … 911 R’s will not seem so special given their spec is basically obtainable in a 997.2 GT3.
Lot 81 – 2005 Carrera GT – GT Silver Metallic/ Ascot – 904 miles – 1 owner – estimate $725k – $825k.
Hammer Price: Withdrawn
What we said: … the bloom is off the CGT’s price rose … is fairly priced at low estimate. But that said, once you add the auctioneers premium that price starts to feel too high. We think low estimate or no sale. See this vehicle’s details at this link.
Our take: Not sure why it was withdrawn from the auction, but not too surprising. Estimate was too high particularly once you add commission.